The Apple iPad is being talked about as the saviour of newspapers by publishers and commentators around the world. While it will take some time to understand whether the iPad will deliver a bankable revenue stream to newspaper publishers, the bigger question for newspaper retailers is whether the iPad will impact on newspaper buying habits.

Consumers buy newspapers out of habit and for an immediate need. I suggest that in both situations, the iPad is not likely to impact noticeably on their purchase patterns, not for the next few years at least.

While iPad sales have been excellent in the United States in the first weeks following release, it will take years to reach the level of critical mass necessary to have a viable channel. The next barrier is app up take.

Each iPad user wanting to access a newspaper, national or local, will need to purchase an app, a subscription to the newspaper. The current pricing model is not all that attractive. While I expect plenty of iPad users to test newspapers, I suspect that it will take some time for us to see an on-going commitment.

Newspaper publishers themselves are only beginning to get used to the new platform. The versions of newspapers today on the iPad will look archaic in just a few months. It a couple of years we will not recognise them in comparison with what will be available them.

Add to the challenge of the new technology and the early versions of newspapers the issue of the technology itself - the need for power and the need for internet access. Each one of these factors is a barrier which will slow getting to the point where we notice an impact on sales.

Depending on the location, single copy newspaper sales, sales over the counter, can account for 33% of all newspaper sales. Many of these are to infrequent purchasers. These customers are unlikely to adopt a technology solution in even the medium term.

Physical newspapers win over the iPad today for convenience, price per copy and flexibility in terms of how you interact with the product. These benefits can and will be combated by the technology but not immediately. This is why retailers selling newspapers have an opportunity in the short term to continue to leverage print newspaper sales.

But back to the question - will the iPad Change Newspaper Buying Habits? Not this year or next but maybe by 2012, the iPad and similar devices will, in my view, have the critical mass and the publishers will have the product to see a measureable migration away from print.

Mark Fletcher is a retailer, business advisor and author at newsagencyblog.com.au.

Source